I wouldn’t be surprised if we hit both 15k and 40k this year.

I like looking at the old charts for patterns and although they never exactly repeat, we can predict a certain amount of unpredictability.

From the 2017/2018 bull run, BTC hit roughly 20k, bottomed out around 4k, hit 12, hovered around 6-8, then dropped to 4, back to 6-8 range again before the 2020 break out and we’re up in the 12k range again.

By simplifying it this way, it’s easy to see them as percentages: a drop to 20% of ath value, crab range at 30-40%, a resurgence at 60%.

How does that compare to today? A new all time high near 70k puts the 20% value at a low of 14k which we did touch, and bottomed out similar to the last cycle but for less time. It puts our crab range around 21-28k. Sound familiar? That’s where we are now. 28k is the next resistance point people are saying we need to break away from.

So where does it go from here? It is hard to account for the chaos factor, however if it follows the patterns, we would continue along the crab channel (21-28k) surge to 42k (the 60% value), come back to the 21-28 range, then hit bottom again before a final breakout.

So as far as strategy goes, if you’re holding wear a seat belt. Safety first. I personally like to trade, which means taking profits at targets hit and keep dry powder on hand for inevitable downturns. Holding cash is somehow harder than holding crypto, but I’m happy whenever I manage to do it.

Mood: mythical bull-bear.