If the market actually priced in a denial of the Ether ETF, will an approval of it make crypto pump harder?

I presume that market is pricing in a denial of the Ether ETF which latest deadline would be in May.

If the market really priced the denial in + Ether ETF getting approved for real on May, the markets will go parabolic?

Because this ETF not only represents ETH, it will have great impact on future ETFs (not futures, I mean in the sense of time).

Other smart contract-able L1s can get a listing as ETF, too, which also could have a high chance of approval if the Ether ETF goes through.

Maybe the SEC plays around this "last" deadline in May and approves an Ether ETF with combine staking feature, so that all other ETF appliants need to add this staking feature, too? This way the SEC can delay the inevitably approval of an Ether ETF.

So if one wants to bet on a pump, it would be ideal to buy before a denial/approval, because...

...a denial is priced in already, downside potential is low

...an approval isn't priced in yet, upside is much bigger...

=> so the upside outweights a downside.