Is the bottom in?

A lot of people are calling for much lower and I’m very skeptical this is the case. It seems like a rehash of the 100k predictions but in the opposite direction.

Everywhere I read on this sub people are throwing out random low ball numbers based off feeling rather than data - and people who do cite their predictions based off “inflation is the highest it’s been since 1981 and a recession is coming” I guarantee haven’t actually looked back at what happened in 1981.

Also people saying the bottoms not in because the suicide hotline hasn’t been posted yet. Did you not see the Luna subreddit, or people talking about their Cro stake?! Just because it’s not here right in front of your eyes it doesn’t mean it’s not there.

Obviously no one can pick the bottom, but there is a ton of data available to suggest where one might be. You don’t bet on a horse based off feeling, you bet on it because you know it’s previous race history.

I also don’t think this “recession” is as bad as people expect it to be and this is rather a large correction in the wake of the last few years of green since the covid crash and all the money that was printed. I believe the big one is still to come, but I feel we’ve still got one last big leg in before this happens.

I have formed this opinion from all the data I’ve trawled through, and I’ll explain why I think this is case below.

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First off from a pure macro data point BTC is right where it should bounce - or bloody close to it, if it is to follow previous market cycles.

1. A BTC bear market low has never broken the previous all time high. Previous ath was 19.8K

2. In all previous bear markets the 200ma on the weekly has provided support and been a strong cycle bottom indicator (yes it has broken below down to the 300ma once or twice but this has always come with a very quick recovery).

3. The weekly RSI is the lowest it’s ever been of any bear market, which indicates BTC is the most over sold it’s ever been in its history.

4. BTC rainbow chat is now in the dark blue.

5. The fair value indicator has diverged massively with fair value now at 41.5K. Divergences this large at almost double the current price have strong bottom signal. Last bear market the largest divergence was half and this was right on the bottom.

6. Stock to flow - I know some people don’t follow this chart after the 100K predictions but it still provides valuable data if you take it with a grain of salt and account for diminishing returns. The chart is now bright green, previous market cycles have bottomed when this has occurred.

7. BTC has hit the second lower logarithmic regression band. There’s still one more lower band at the 16K, but taking into consideration diminishing returns & diminishing losses, the lowest band should not be touched just as the highest band was not touched at peak 2 years prior.

8. Fear and greed is the second lowest it’s ever been.

9. Finally on the weekly candle charts in logarithmic we have a rising trend line since 2013 that has never been broken.

There is still plenty more data suggesting this is the bottom but these are just a few of the main ones I have picked out. Obviously there is no way to predict a black swan event, but the only one I can reference in crypto is the covid crash and this still didn’t break macro data.

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Moving onto why I believe we still have one more large leg up before a recession.

A lot of people are citing inflation and interest rate hikes to be the catalyst of this recession. Inflation is the highest it’s been since 1981, and in 1981 people were claiming the same thing but what followed was quite different.

To have an idea of what might happen, you have to look at what has happened. History always has a funny way of repeating itself.

In 1981 inflation was very high, the stock market dumped, Iraq invades Iran and President Reagan was shot in an assassination attempt. But what followed was a parabolic rally till 1987 after inflation got under control, then a major global recession hit.

Today inflation is the same as 81, the stock market has plummeted, Russia invaded Ukraine., and all we need now is an assassination attempt.. on hopefully an old Soviet era dick of a leader ????

As long as inflation gets under control, which I’m sure is in the Fed’s best interest, a scenario like 1981-87 can very well happen again.

My belief is a major recession will come in 2027-29 for a few reasons;

1.Unemployment is at an all time low, at least here in NZ. A lot of other western countries are also low.

1. Many large companies are posting their largest profits ever.

2. The banks have been extremely cautious with lending since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, so the average joe is not going to suddenly default on their debts.

3. The world is moving on from covid and supply chains are all starting to free up again.

Finally, When we have large recessions that hit hard it’s because property gets effected too. And currently the property market doesn’t look like it’s going to crash anytime soon due to low unemployment, secure lending, landlords earning more on rent and housing still selling for record highs.

The property market is one of the oldest in the world and it’s what the most people have exposure to. Mum dad and the kids don’t have stock portfolios, but they do have a mortgage or rent, and a majority of people are in this same boat. So that’s why when the property market crashes, everyone feels it.

And an interesting thing to note, just like stocks or any other market, the property market cycles too. Being a slower moving, larger market, cycles take a lot longer - about 18.5 years on average if you look at history, which would put the next big crash at 2027-28.

• 19 years ago was the 2008 recession.

• 20 years before that was 1987 financial crisis.

• 18 years before that was 1970, the early 70s a notorious period of economic stagnation.

• 17 years before that was 1954. The recession of the mid 50s

• 18 years before that was 1936, americas third worst recession of the 20th century.

• 21 years before was 1914, WW1

So in following this 18.5 year cycle 2022-23 is too early.

This is all obviously macro data and price can fluctuate short term in markets, but in the bigger picture I truely believe the bottom is now/very soon for both the stock market and crypto.

I’m aggressively buying now, and I’m not suggesting you do too. All I’m saying is take some time to look at the bigger picture, it might just change your life.