Kind reminder that even if Bitcoin goes to 100,000 you'd only be up 2x

First of all, before the nitpickers get here, I understand that 100 000/40 000 is 227.8%, or +128% or 2.28x. Ok now that that is out of the way.

It is improbable that BTC will take a massive curve upwards to 100k any time this week, this month, maybe by the end of the year I would assume (oh god I hope this doesn't age like milk). Not because BTC is successful or desirable, which it obviously is, but because the market cap is so thick and saturated it becomes impossible to move up.

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btc-usd chart over the last 5 years; bearish flag

Here's the price chart for the BTCUSD pair, not to get too technical about it, but it's an easy read of market sentiment:

1. Massive Bull market up to 63k where it reaches a ceiling (some resistance)
2. Bear market dips back down to the 40s
3. Another test up to the 60s
4. Another dip back down
5. Both Floors (support are moving up as well)

If you notice, both floor and ceiling are moving up, which is a good thing right? It means the bulls are getting stronger right?

Well, not exactly. Here's why

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btc-usd chart with focus on trading volume

Most people tend to forget about trading volume, well you shouldn't, because it signifies a lot of things.

Compare the Bull market of the final quarter of 2021 (sep-dec) to the bull market of the beginning of this year, the first quarter of 2022.

Both look similar in price action, but look at the trading volume. In the first bull, the market volume shot up immensely, but in the second one, not only was it stagnant, but it dipped slightly,

This means that the last uptrend was rather a farce, created by a small and powerful group rather than overall market sentiment.

I, by no means, am saying that Technical Analysis is the be-all-end-all of market predictions, but it shows overall market sentiment of the people involved in it, it shows that hype is slowing down, albeit slowly, which means it's going to take much longer than you think to hit 100k.

Keep in mind that the more BTC rises, the more it gets attention, the more it gets resisted by the bears back down, and the harder it is to move up. By that analysis, it should be a long time before we see a massive bull again.

Be that as it may, even if BTC hits 100k any time soon, that's only a 2x for your profit. If you're new here or coming from the stock market, that may sound like a lot, but if you have had your fair share in crypto market, then you would know, that's not a lot in these markets.

Just so you can understand how difficult it would be to get that high.

Current market capital is around 800B dollars, it would take 2.27 that capital, another 800B to get there. 800B is enough to make yourself a proper country, and the total at that point would be around 1.89 TRILLION DOLLARS, that 1 890 000 000 000 dollars...

That being said, it would take forever to make any kind of serious profit off Bitcoin, especially if your funds are still low, and you're looking to make more than a 5% of your ROI.

Take these small cap coins as a comparison to BTC, and how much more volatile they would be.

1. DOCK, with a market capital of 26 500 000 USD, it would be another 26M to make 2x
2. ELON, with a small cap of 500M, it could easily make it to 1B for a 2x, and even more considering the hype it has behind it at the moment
3. FET, with also a small cap but a rather innovative project with good utility, it could easily make more than 2x in the market

More people need to understand, and this is especially for beginners in the market, that BTC is not for beginners, it's the massive slug of the market, it moves slow and creates large waves wherever it goes. Even when leveraged the volatility to reward ratio is miniscule. A beginner, and notwithstanding any future prospect trader would have much higher luck trader a small cap coin that could go a long way.

TLDR; Keep your BTC by all means, but venture outside of it if you want to make good profits.