Nobody knows shit about fuck

Except, some of us do. I’ve been seeing a lot of questions about the halving and people doubting what will happen. The reason the halving causes a supply shock is that the amount of Bitcoin produced by miners is significant (900BTC or ~27million USD per DAY at ~30k price). When that number gets cut in half, it takes far less daily buying power to purchase the Bitcoin available on the market. If demand stays constant (hint: it will increase, not stay constant), the price has to go up when the supply decreases. It’s simple economics.

There are plenty of people who DCA no matter the price. People will be buying no matter the price as more fiat is printed and earned. This is market forces at play. In response to a post I saw suggesting the next halving could be “Priced In,” I would say that the act of “Pricing In,” a future supply shock would just make 2 supply shocks… one now and one when the supply is actually cut in half and the excess float is eventually bought up. My guess is 6-8 months after the halving if history rhymes….

The reason the price is around 30k at the moment is because everyone buying is bidding a combined 27mil on the day’s mining harvest. After the halving it will take 13.5mil daily to reach this price point. When FOMO sets in and people spend double what they are now, I suspect the price to reasonably reach 4-5x current levels or 120-150k Bitcoin modestly before correcting next bear market to the 70k zone, which is what 27-30mil a day could easily sustain. This is not financial advice, mind you. What happens all depends on how many people are buying and how much fiat they have to do it with. The supply is fixed, so the math is easy. 1BTC=1BTC.