Bitcoin and altcoins are facing profit-booking after the recent relief rally, but charts suggest that a revisit to recent swing lows could be in store.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) current bear market is one of the worst, according to a report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. This was the first time in history that the Mayer Multiple slipped below the previous cycle’s low. Bitcoin’s fall below $20,000 on June 18 also marked the biggest loss ever booked by investors in a single day at $4.23 billion. Considering the above factors and a few other events, Glassnode believes that the capitulation in Bitcoin may have started.
Bitcoin whales seem to have started their purchasing, suggesting that the bottom may be close and on June 25, analytics resource "Game of Trades" highlighted that demand from whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoin witnessed a sharp spike in demand.
Another sign that traders are purchasing comes from Glassnode comments suggesting that the 30-day average change in the supply kept on exchanges plummeted by 153,849 Bitcoin on June 26, the largest ever in history.
Could bulls continue their purchases on dips and form a higher low? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
BTC/USDT
Bitcoin turned down from $22,000 on June 26, indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. The bears will try to pull the price to the psychological level of $20,000.
If the price rebounds off $20,000, it will suggest that bulls are accumulating on dips. That could keep the pair range-bound between $20,000 and $22,000 for a few days.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($22,890). That could open the doors for a possible rally to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $24,693.
This level could again act as a resistance, but if bulls overcome the barrier, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)($27,150). The bulls will have to push the price above this level to indicate that the pair may have bottomed out.
ETH/USDT
Ether (ETH) reached the 20-day EMA ($1,300) on June 26 but the bulls could not push the price above the resistance. This suggests that the bears are not willing to surrender their advantage easily.
If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will try to pull the ETH/USDT pair to $1,050. This is an important level to watch out for because a break below it could suggest that bears are in control.
Conversely, if the price turns up from the current level or rises from $1,050, the bulls will try to propel the pair above the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to the breakdown level of $1,700. A break and close above this resistance could indicate the start of a new uptrend.
BNB/USDT
BNB has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($241) since June 24. This suggests that the bears are defending the level but the bulls have not yet given up as they anticipate a move higher.
If buyers thrust the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($277). This level may again act as a stiff hurdle but if crossed, the pair could attempt a rally toward $350.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, the pair could drop to $211. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a rebound off it will suggest that bulls are attempting to form a higher low. But if the level cracks, the pair could retest the vital support at $183.
XRP/USDT
Ripple (XRP) broke and closed above the overhead resistance at $0.35 on June 24 but the bulls could not clear the barrier at the 50-day SMA ($0.38). This suggests that the bears are defending the level aggressively.
A minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to dip back below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). This suggests buying on dips. If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again attempt to push the price above the 50-day SMA.
If they can pull it off, it will suggest that the downtrend could be weakening. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to $0.45.
Another possibility is that bears pull the price back below $0.35. If that happens, the pair could slide to $0.32 and then to $0.28.
ADA/USDT
The buyers pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) on June 26 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears aggressively sold at higher levels.
A minor positive is that the bulls have not given up ground and are again attempting to clear the overhead hurdle at the moving averages. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rise toward $0.70 where the bears may again put up a strong defense.
If the price turns down sharply from this level, it will suggest that the pair may remain range-bound between $0.40 and $0.70 for some more time.
This positive view could be negated in the short term if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.44. That could pull the pair to $0.40.
SOL/USDT
Solana (SOL) has been stuck between the moving averages since June 24. This suggests that bears are selling on rallies to the 50-day SMA ($43) and bulls are buying on dips to the 20-day EMA ($38).
The moving averages are close to a bullish crossover and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the midpoint, suggesting that bulls are attempting a comeback. If buyers propel the price above the 50-day SMA, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to $60.
This level may again act as a stiff resistance but if bulls clear this hurdle, the momentum could pick up. On the contrary, if the price turns down and plunges below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears have overpowered the bulls. The pair could then slide to $33.
DOGE/USDT
Dogecoin (DOGE) broke and closed above the 20-day EMA ($0.07) on June 25. The buyers extended the recovery on June 26 and pushed the price to the 50-day SMA ($0.08) but the long wick on the candlestick suggests that bears are defending the level with vigor.
The buyers are again trying to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to $0.09 and then to the psychological level at $0.10. This level could again act as a resistance but if bulls overcome this barrier, the momentum is likely to pick up.
Alternately, if the price fails to sustain above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The bears will then try to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA.
Related: Dogecoin price could rally 20% in July with this bullish reversal pattern
DOT/USDT
The bears have been aggressively defending the 20-day EMA ($8.11) in Polkadot (DOT) since June 24 but a positive sign is that bulls have not given up much ground. A tight consolidation near a resistance usually resolves to the upside.
If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($9.13). This level may again act as a hurdle but the likelihood of a break above it is high. If that happens, the pair could rally to $10.75.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The sellers will then try to pull the pair below $7.30 and challenge the crucial support at $6.36.
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke above the 50-day SMA ($0.000011) on June 25 but the bulls could not continue the recovery. The bears sold near $0.000012 on June 26 and are trying to pull the price back below the 50-day SMA.
The 20-day EMA ($0.000010) has started to turn up gradually and the RSI is in the positive territory. This suggests that buyers have a slight edge. If the price rebounds off the current level or the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to resume the up-move.
If the price rises above $0.000012, the SHIB/USDT pair could rally to the overhead resistance at $0.000014. This positive view could be negated in the short term if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche (AVAX) has been stuck in a tight range between the 20-day EMA ($20) and the overhead resistance at $21.35 since June 25. This suggests indecision among the bulls and the bears.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If bulls push the price above $21.35, the AVAX/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($25). This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the pair may rise to $30.
This positive view could invalidate in the short term if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA and plummets below the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a possible decline to $16.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
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