Random thoughts of a 38 year old

If you are on reddit bitcoin, maybe you are new to bitcoin, maybe you are considering putting in more $. Here are some thoughts of a random 38 year old.

1. Are you still early? Super early? No. Early? Yes. The vast majority of people I know own zero bitcoin. I know people with real money who say "tulips". There is NO etf, and only 1 S&P 500 company that owns it. I personally know about 30 people with net worth above 500k. ZERO have more than 10% of their net worth in btc. For those that own it, we are talking between 3-10,000 worth.
2. The dollar will NOT crash. I've heard this for a long time. The dollar is a measurement against other garbage currencies. I expect the dollar to stay in the same range for a long time. I do believe the dollar structurally crashes in about 20 years-we are far from this.
3. Humans always chase. Let me repeat: humans always chase. 2017 crypto, 2007 housing, 2000 dot com. Those are the ones people talk about. How about fracking in North Dakota and Texas? People that took out loans to buy trucks and make money like water flowed and then lost it. The miami real estate bubble in 2008 was insane-we are talking about people flipping condos that the development had not even broken ground on. How about some of the NFTS? People ALWAYS chase.
4. There are 5 things that will make btc go up: expanding balance sheets of central banks, more stimulus, rate cuts, institutional adoption, and the etf. I think this year brings a future based etf and next year more rate cuts as the economy, worldwide, is slowing. Taper is the new rate cut. So they have to taper AND raise rates...lol not happening.
5. My belief is getting to 1 coin, or 2, is enough for the vast majority of people. Can people try to get to 10, 20, etc? yes, of course. However, if bitcoin goes to a path to 500k, then a million, it will be more than enough for most. Why? They can borrow against it or lend it out and use it as a 3-5% bond.
6. I think trading is an art most lose money at, me included. The siren song of trading futures and leverage-most people I know with money are firm in their STAY AWAY stance. Bitcoin is an 80 volatility asset. The S&P is 10. There was a $1,000 swing in 1 hour today. Most people with leverage lose $. Most, not all. I think trading makes sense when you have hit your goal. Your goal is your goal alone.
7. Your friends, co worker, boss, and family might ask you how much btc you have. I'd significantly understate it. Why? Most humans are jealous. It's not evil-people are interesting creatures. Let's say you have 5 btc. Let's say btc goes to $10,000. A lot of people will call you up, mock you, etc. However, lets say btc goes to $200k. You now have a million dollars. You will attract a lot of unwanted attention. Also, it might ruin your friendships (c'mon man, my radiator is down and work is slow, it's only $600, you have 5 btc!"). Look at a lot of young adult men who get quick money-it's gone fast. Also, people knowing you have money is actually a safety issue.
8. Keep your job until you feel secure. I see a lot of people trying to gloat. Why not keep your job and build your stack?
9. Unpopular opinion, but bitcoin or being rich won't make you happy. There are a lot of miserable people with a LOT of money. I think the vast majority of people on CT are actually unhappy even if they have tons of money and luxury goods.
10. As a real estate person, I have been convinced that at this point, real estate is a worse bet than bitcoin. here's why:

ROI= equity gained / down payment.

The only way to max out this formula is to put as little down as possible.

However, there are 2 types of real estate and why they go up. Non luxury is only going to keep going up because of money printing and lower rates. If this happens, btc skyrockets. Luxury does this and because it's very scarce and the demand for luxury will greatly increase-however, to go after luxury real estate, at least in the US, starts are 2 million, and realistically more like 3. This means you are paying in most places 2-5k a month in taxes alone. Let me repeat-2-5k in monthly taxes alone. Unless you have tons of liquidity, my bet is btc.