So over the past few months I've been studying demographics and economics. Basically
Above is a chart from Real Vision, it shows the estimated retirement rate of people in the future. Note this was 2018 when that was made, and I can't find a more up to date chart. Now if you take a look at the inflation vs recession We just crossed this and it bounced back, so we will see what will happen in the future. But in the past one of the big hits is 2008 time housing bubble collapse. See the thing is when someone gets closer to retirement normally they will move their investments into a more stable and less risky market. In reality, 2008 wiped out many people's retirement and many people are still not recovered from what they lost in 2008. This forced people to put their money in higher risky markets (which might include crypto). Part of this or a lot of this caused things like and what we might of seen in crypto. Note the dates when the spike happened. Basically, people DCA into markets through their retirement system or for retirement. What you need to keep in mind is what happens when people retire.
So if you have a ton of people stop being buyers, and now becoming sellers. We now have a recipe for a near free falling market. What you most likely going to see is those near retirement or at retirement just retire and pull out as much as they can to save everything. Some (and this is happening today) selling their pensions or pulling out of their IRA early. And what happens is the first people who retire get the most, while everyone else gets screwed in a runaway market. A lot of economist are saying that this next recession is going to be far worse than the great depression era, and it is likely to happen in the next few years. (None of this is financial advice btw) So what happens is You have older and older groups going back to work because
And as you can see, the older workers are now competing with some of the youngest now. Likely it is people who had good jobs ($50k-$100k+) jobs and due to age discrimination they can't do those jobs anymore. Now they are stuck with starter jobs and min wage. https://www.forbes.com/sites/teresaghilarducci/2021/12/17/too-many-older-workers-are-stuck-in-low-wage-jobs/?sh=1d1ce8916c15 Some might say, well younger people will pick up the slack. Well.... So thanks due to bad gov policies and society pushing a bad idea (by force where if you don't jump then you don't get to a better life), younger people are stuck with a heavy bill in student loans, increase cost of living, increase taxes and types of taxes and a number of things which makes it impossible for the younger generations to support the older. And then following generations it will be worse since the current generations are having WAY less kids Oh and top that automation is taken off so current generation and upcoming is screwed there too TLDR What does all of this mean?In a nut shell it looks like the older generations are about to or are retiring. Since they aren't adding anything more into the markets, but now selling. This has a strong likely to cause major drops. Because of past economic problems and other things, older generations had to invest into higher risk to high risk things which might include crypto (which means when the retirement really kicks up we might see a pretty big hit). The ones who couldn't retire or waited get screwed and now they basically can't retire until they die. But thanks to age discrimination and not being prepared for such factors, the older generations are going to be (and as charts show are) competing with the youngest of the labor force. The increase cost of living and the fact the youngest generations have a growing harder time in getting a time getting a job. And then because automation is lower the workforce in itself by a good amount. It is likely all groups will start pulling out of their investments early to support themselves and those around them. (Side note: today in a hardware store I overheard a few people talking to each other how they had to sell their pension to help pay for medical bills and other things, and how their retirement is a shotgun or being worked to death.) The take away from this isn't a buy or sell. It is we should watch what happens and adapt. There is no data showing how this will play out since in no time in world history has all these factors happened, the gov screwed up so bad and it is still around, and with modern tech it makes it impossible to do illegal stuff to just get by. What is your thoughts on all of this? [link] [comments] |
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