What helped you get over your fear of "bad timing" to start investing in BTC regularly?
Here's something that helped reassure me a lot:
There was some interesting research done by Schwab Center for Financial Research related to the S&P 500, which can be applied to Bitcoin strategies too. A couple of years ago this information helped to remove my hesitation and fear about whether it was a good time or bad time to buy Bitcoin.
In their research, they analyzed the previous 20 years of S&P 500 data with 5 different investing strategies. Each of the 5 made-up investors received $2K per year to invest, and each varied when they would've invested it, for example:
- Investing all $2K on the BEST day each year with perfect timing
- Investing all $2K IMMEDIATELY upon receipt (on the 1st available day of the year)
- Investing monthly (Dollar Cost Averaging / DCA; submit $166.66 per month)
- Investing all $2K on the WORST day of each year with bad timing
- Not investing or in this case leaving it in TREASURY bills (basically not investing)
The results are stunning, after $2K/yr for 20yrs ($40K total), they made:
- Perfect timing investor = $151,391
- Immediate receipt investor = $135,471
- DCA = $134,856
- Worst Possible Timing = $121,171
- Not investing/Treasury = $44,438
We could discuss the reason for the differences, but the point I am making is that when I applied this to Bitcoin, I stopped caring if it was a bull run or Bear Market or "good time" or "bad time," because even the person who bought at the WORST POSSIBLE time every year without fail still came out WAY ON TOP.
We could do the exact same thing with Bitcoin through nearly any period and I would guess that even the people who bought at the absolute worst possible time every single time without fail would still be way ahead overall (IF they ALSO played the LONG GAME HODL'ING...not day-trading) just like the S&P 500 worst timing investor doing it worst over 20yrs, but never selling out.
In fact, the worst-timing investor in the S&P didn't really lose out all that much. They still 3x'd their investment and made nearly 3 times more than the person who was too scared to do anything but HODL their FIAT. Yes, DCA made more money than the person who invested at the WORST time each year, but not by a HUGE margin. Even the worst possible timing person came out way ahead of the dollar holder. All because they played the long game. That is what HODL'ing BTC is all about too.
So to me, it's less important about "WHEN" I am investing in BTC (ie: "Is it the best or worst time to buy more?"). The most important thing is that I am investing at all (I personally choose DCA with no intent to touch it for decades). Once I saw that NOT investing actually cost that poor sap so much compared to the next worst strategy, I realized the real mistake was not taking any action. Waiting and holding FIAT is NOT "playing it safe"...that fear of bad timing was costing them WAY more than the worst possible timing.
Of course, all of the above assumes that a person is in it for the long haul...in this case, 20 years. I won't give "investment advice" to anyone else (make up your own mind, and don't blame me for sharing my own experience), but to me, this drove home the point that inaction is a lot more costly than blowing off the fear about bad timing and just doing something regularly. In the LONG RUN, there is no "bad timing." Bitcoin has never lost money in any 4 year period, and I expect it never will due to the halving cycles, and definitely won't over the very long term. I don't intend to sell off my stacked sats, and I tell loved ones that if they ever buy BTC to never consider re-evaluating their BTC investment any shorter than 4 years minimum, and the longer the better. That's the point this drives home to me: "Get over your fear that it might be a bad time. Ignore that because you're doing it for the long-game HODL'ing anyway, and in the LONG-game, there is no "bad timing." BTC's paradox is that it can be extremely unpredictable in the short-term while being among the most predictable, stable, safe, and secure in the long-term."
I'd love to hear what helped you finally get over your fear of "bad timing" and finally decide to start investing regularly.
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