 | Let me preface this by saying I've become aware a lot of people here regard thinking to be a waste of energy. I'm not here to debate that. I just want to put forward some info and then leave a checklist of things we can look for to see if it is correct or not. Because that's how we do about determining if things are useful or not - testing and evaluating. We're going to be using a couple models that have been developed a long time ago. A long time before there was Bitcoin. Here's the template of an economic bubble as first defined by Charles P. Kindleberger - everyone will have seen this before. Here's a BTC analysis I did in March using this template. I'd assumed the high was in at 60K, it was not. The high was made at 65K. Everything in my analysis was about 5K off - about 8- 9 % variance (Which I think is okay). Since it was 5K off the swings need to be adjusted 5K. So here's the swings re-mapped to account for that. This is interesting, because the model here does a pretty good job of forecasting the form of the swings down and also the size of them. The low here comes in pretty much where would be expected (Which is just over 50% drop). And by the original model we should then go into this retracement, and this retracement should end somewhere around or just over 40K. Again we need about 10% variance. Next we'll bring in the Elliot model to this. Expert Market Forecasting Using the Elliott Wave Principle :: Elliott Wave International Elliot's theory can be complicated and confusing but there are ways to simplify it. As always I like to template things and then apply these templates until they no longer work. And here's one I made earlier for the Elliot model. I posted this several months ago. While BTC was the high (And this was done for all trading assets, not just BTC). And if we were to be applying this sort of template move, then this; Would be most like this. Again here we're matching multiple points. There have been two swings down. There's been a range. We've seen a parabolic move. There's a little breakout being made which I think may turn into a false breakout - the size and style of the moves are significantly similar - to an extend that chance seems unlikely. In Elliot's theory, this would be us in wave 4. Wave 4 should be expected to be messy, choppy and have false breakouts. Wave 4 is often hard to spot until late into the wave or indeed after the fact. Usually here I'd include a bunch of previous forecasts I've made based on wave 4 to show how similar these all look and how useful it's been previously - but this sub obviously gets spammed a lot and it means I can't add links to my profile, which is fair enough. In wave 4 the retracement should end by 38%. Typically this is where the false breakout can go to and anything above that is more likely to be a real breakout. I thought we'd hit that already but we were slightly shy of it and the market does love a good little trick. We're shooting up towards the fib level now - around 42,250 on BTC. And that's another match. We now have an even longer series of very unlikely matches. If this level was to break and run to the 50% retrace, I'd be reversing on my position and expecting to see prices go parabolic some time in the near future. But as things stand right now, I think we're likely into the reversal zone for this bull move during the 42,000's range. Which would put us heading into this swing. So here's the testable forward looking criteria -
Set remindme's if you'd like to track this. My estimate is 3 months should be enough to have seen the swing down and at least the start of the two legged bounce. [link] [comments] |
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