We are looking at this chart. I know it looks like a mess, and I will explain it below the chart. In this post I'm look at this from a micro level, but the lines are needed for a long term view.

https://preview.redd.it/njwh7xy4ckq81.png?1525&format=png&auto=webp&s=6626d15ebfeebff86e1a88d0f5b1ff1721063450

• Each line going horizonal is a resistant/support point. Basically where we should expect the price to slow down or stop at. Where it is historically tested.
• The boxes (gray areas) is ranges of where resistant/support is. Where it can go sideways for a bit.
• Ignore the purple line for this. I need it for a far longer term look at the charts.
• The green short lines is the channel edge and the thing in the middle is to help show where it is going.

Good news

We are testing the top and if we break through then it is likely we will be able to get beyond $50k. It should be noted our next major resistant/support is $48k and then $50k.

It should also be noted this doesn't show an explosion or any evidence of this. So on a micro level I don't expect it to really jump beyond $50k-$55k if it jumps.

The bad news

This looks like a triple top. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tripletop.asp

It should be noted this isn't clean as I would like it. And this means we don't need to say for 100% this is what will happen. But if it is, then it means the price will end up dropping soon. If I had a to put a number on it, I would say this might be 40% right. So the likely isn't there, but there isn't enough evidence of anything else. But in this case a lack of evidence doesn't confirm anything.

If I had to make an educated guess if we don't break through $48 then we might drop down to mid or lower part of the channel, but stay within the channel. So you're looking at roughly $10k or 20% drop.

And even the greed fear doesn't support we will break through the floor yet. So IMO even if there is a drop I wouldn't worry much yet. The point of this is to show the channel we are in and that we are bouncing off the top. And to look at $48k to being your magic number.

Other things

The greed fear index

https://preview.redd.it/vbqwcqioekq81.png?1679&format=png&auto=webp&s=0952639d107dc7fb394035322ed124565f75a85a

For those of you who don't know, the higher the greed the more likely of a serious drop, the higher the fear the more likely for a pump. Basically while everyone is scared and the price fallen, it is best to buy.

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https://preview.redd.it/wc3kp0n2fkq81.png?1199&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f57e991db6d5aa3f3000c16355913e62c0671f6

Search for this stuff doesn't show much of any change. So it should be noted it isn't in the wider public eye right now.

What I think will end up happening

Outside of a major world event that no one knows about until after. I don't see the price seriously jumping or falling. Yes 20% swings, but as anyone who has been in crypto for some time knows. This is just another day type of thing. I think we need to keep an eye on $48k and if we break it then keep an eye on $50k. If we can break and stay above $50k, then we will be setting a new pattern. If not, I think the likely is we stay within the current channel for better or worse. There just isn't a strong pattern to show outside of a general direction we are going (which is up btw).

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^{Note this isn't financial advice.}