Will the reduced supply shock of the 2024 halving invalidate the next halving cycle?

Serious question...

The 2024 halving will reduce Bitcoin's current inflation rate from ~1.7% down to ~0.9%. After previous halvings we have seen significant price appreciation. However, the halvings were much more substantial that the upcoming one. For example, the first halving went form an inflation rate of ~7% (50BTC per block) down to ~3.5% (25BTC per block).

Considering that this supply shock won't be as intense as previous halving, how will this affect the rate of returns?

Can the law of diminishing returns invalidate the halving cycle? Or is it reasonable to expect Bitcoin to blow up again?