With Cathie Wood predicting BTC to hit $1 million by 2030, it's worthwhile remembering her modelling can be very flawed.

Cathie Wood released her Big Ideas for 2022 and she predicts that BTC will hit $1 million by 2030.

I'm bullish on BTC, but I don't think she is the best source to get her information from, just look at her modelling for Tesla:

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An assumption of no equity raises ($0 CAPEX) despite an assumption of Tesla opening no less than 25 automotive manufacturing facilities within the coming four years, meaning production capacity of 5 to 10 million electric vehicles.

In the same ballpark as the above, no debt raises either, despite growing revenue to $700 billion in the bull case ($300 billion in the bear case). They are even assumed to pay back $14 billion of debt in the period.

Blatant misuse of Monte Carlo simulations, including using them to average a price target instead of using them to provide a distribution of outcomes.

Broad misunderstanding of the structure of and regulatory hurdles in the auto insurance market.

Bull case net revenue of $327 billion from Robo-taxis (autonomous ride-hails) in 2025.

Overstating the effect of “Wright’s Law” of declining production costs. Despite gross margins decreasing from 2018 to 2019 and being roughly unchanged from 2019 to 2020, ARK assumes they will average higher by 80 percent over the coming five years as a result of Wright’s Law.

The most shocking bit of analysis, however, is that her bear case (i.e. a bad scenario) would still be 60% higher than Tesla's current price. So she's saying that you're almost guaranteed to make money on the stock. Ridiculous.

It seems that a lot of her reasoning is from picking a price target and then creating a rationale after the fact. If you want to read more, please do so here, the author Asger Bruhn writes very well.

Tl;dr: Be bullish on BTC, but not because of Cathie Wood