 | This is a LONG overdue update as it's now been 3 weeks since the last time I posted on the project. Obviously a ton has changed since then and pretty much all of it is negative. This update will take a bit longer than most due to the fact that there's a lot of negative things to talk about and I'm also recapping 3 weeks worth of purchases/staking/interest rewards rather than just a single week like normal. Rest assured, though, for those of you who have been following the project, I haven't given up, I'm still making my purchases but my time to post had been pretty limited lately so I didn't get a chance to update anything on Reddit. For those who aren't familiar with my experiment, I'm DCAing into a mix of 16 alt-coins and using BTC, ETH and BUSD (with interest on BlockFi) as controls in a 1 year long project. I took feedback from the community to help set the roster of 16 coins, but also did a bit of my own research and picked projects which I believed in after doing some DD. I have posted at least a summary of my DD on each coin in previous posts and I will be donating some of the proceeds to a charity to be chosen by the person who suggested the best performing coin at the end of the experiment. For the starting point you can look here: https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/q9z379/one_year_altcoin_dca_experiment/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 and the most recent update prior to today can be found here: https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/u4nq15/1_year_altcoin_dca_experiment_week_26_update/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 As I stated in my intro, things are looking pretty bleak. Not just in the crypto world but the broader macro world as well. Interest rates are headed up with no near term end to the increases in sight. Inflation is raging. There's still a major war going on in Ukraine that is going to affect global food stores in the very near future. Gas prices are raging out of control. My 401k is down over 10% year to date, the stock of the tech company I work for is down over 35% year to date, the NASDAQ, Dow and S&P are all in miserable territory, etc. It really should be no surprise that the crypto market is down like it is given everything going on around us. It still sucks though! The positive here is this was always meant to be a long term investment. I am looking out at least 5-10 years with everything I'm doing both in crypto and the stock market, so I'll take advantage of this opportunity to keep buying into the projects I believe in at what appear to be excellent buying prices across the board. Let's dive into the financials. I'm going to mix up the order a bit because I think given my hiatus it's a good idea to look at the overall chart first, followed by the coins I purchased in the last 3 weeks before diving into the current standings table. So, here's what the chart looks like today: Those last 3 weeks look tragic. As you can see, all of the coins are now negative with the sole exception being BUSD which I'm hosting on BlockFi and collecting interest on. Honestly, the most disheartening coin for me on this chart is LUNA. As recently as early April it was up over 75% and even last week when I didn't provide an update, it was still up over 20%. It's still in first place among the competitive coins, but it's sad to see even my top dog in the red. Let's hope we can get some positive news here over the next couple of weeks to turn some of these trend lines around. The other really troubling piece of this is if you look at the price of BTC (thick purple line) over the course of this experiment relative to the overall gain/loss of the experiment (thick dashed blue-grey line) I've been beating the price of BTC almost the whole time. It's now less than a 2% difference as the alts have been getting crushed even harder than BTC and ETH have. Next I'll get into the purchases and interest/staking rewards since the last update. Typically this is a small table but given that it's been 3 weeks since I provided an update and it just happens that the past 2 weeks were both control weeks, I've got 18 purchases and 5 staking/interest rewards to update, so this chart is much larger than it's ever been. I've broken out each week's purchases separately so you can see the buy price for each week individually. The stuff I purchased this week came at a pretty big discount over a week ago. Now that we've gotten through those, I'm going to put the main tracking table that I usually lead with each week. Since I hadn't been posting, I had to go calculate the last 2 weeks first in order to update the chart and calculate this week's week/week numbers, so these are based on where the portfolio was at last week versus this week, even though I didn't provide an update last week. As you can see, things are not going well. For context, as of April 2nd the overall portfolio was up 2.77%. Last week (just 1 month later) when I didn't provide an update, the portfolio was down just over 30%, which was the worst it had been over the entire course of the experiment. As bad as that seemed, here we are today, just 1 week later and now we're down over 40%. Things are spiraling out of control quickly. This is disheartening, but I already talked earlier about the broader macro environment. The reality is that when things are going badly in the economy and stock market the things that take the biggest hits are the most speculative assets like tech stocks and crypto. My core position is not changed. I don't think anything about crypto or the underlying technology in these projects has changed. What's changed is that people don't have the free money to spend like they used to and institutional investors are moving into safer investments. At some point this ship will turn itself around and in the meantime I'm going to keep on buying. As for the individual coins, where to even begin? There's not a positive story anywhere in that table. Only 3 coins are down less than 10% week over week (and even then, just barely). Every competitive coin in the portfolio is down over 10%, most of them are in the 40-55% down range. FTM is still bringing up the rear as it has been for the past few months. The biggest non-macro story in the list is probably CRO which had been one of my better coins until they decided they hated their customer base. 35% down week over week makes sense with an announcement like that. One last closing note on the progress so far. Since I had skipped a few weeks, we're now well into the second half of the experiment. At this point there are just 23 remaining weeks to go in the purchasing phase and then it's another year of growth to determine the winning coin. Let's hope BUSD doesn't stay in front. Finally, as always you can see real-time status of the experiment by following this link to CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/portfolios/public/pokoire-1-year-dca-experiment where you can see updates of the doughnut chart below. [link] [comments] |
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