My math says mining might be better than DCA over the next 8 years

When people ask about mining, I usually see the advice that "just buying BTC is better unless you have a big operation.."

​

I decided to math it up a bit. Now, the big unknowns are BTC price and changes in hashrate/difficulty. I also may have missed something else. Open to criticism here. But, my napkin spreadsheet math tells me mining is significantly better. I chose to use an 8-year time period to compare. My math had mining earning about half a bitcoin while DCA was closer to a third of a coin.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1U-j6JNRNcNEeXS-vHKTMhDqQTtJOpQa68V6JU4zrXgM/edit?usp=sharing

​

Here are some assumptions I used:

​

1. Hashrate goes up 65% per year. This is roughly what happened between 2018 and now.
2. I used my local power rates which are low (~8 cents per kw/h) and assumed a 1.5% inflation
3. I was able to buy one top miner for $15k (This is not real. It's assuming I can)
4. For DCA comparison I used the initial miner cost and then the annual power cost
5. For BTC price, I used an annual average that went up 40% per year (pretty conservative). If the price goes up faster, it favors mining more.
6. Halving occurs 2024 and 2028

​

I used this site to calc current rewards: https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=104&HashingUnit=TH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=3068&CostPerkWh=0.077&MiningPoolFee=1

​

​

Someone check my math. Dealing with a miner might be a pain, and the one major risk might be if your miner quits working. But, otherwise, mining seems like a great move. Am I missing something?

EDIT: Thanks for the input. INCOME TAXES. I didn’t know you owed income taxes on mined coins even before you sell. Ugh. That changes things.