Over the long run, does simply holding Bitcoin outperform trading it?

Holding removes a lot of decision-making. Fewer trades, fewer chances to make mistakes, and fewer moments where you start doubting Bitcoin itself. That’s why buy-and-hold often feels less risky over long timeframes.

At the same time, futures exist for a reason. I came across a discussion on Bitunix where some people argued futures aren’t really about beating buy-and-hold, but about shaping exposure and managing risk over time. That made me wonder whether either approach actually has a higher probability of working over years rather than months or cycles.

Curious how others here see it?