Bitcoin price predictions and time preference

There are two groups of people who are almost always wrong: those who say Bitcoin is going to zero and those who say Bitcoin will never go below $X again. Giving both the benefit of the doubt, the reason both are wrong is that they both have a high time preference and are being short sighted.

While there's nothing to be done about the first group (other than to thank them for selling low), the second group could get it right a lot more often by saying Bitcoin's 200 week moving average will never go below $X again.

Although that's a much less compelling statement on the surface of it, if you really believe in Bitcoin, that's a statement of faith far stronger than anything about any one point in time and demonstrates what a real low time preference looks like.